Over Obama’s first 17 weeks in office, independents were about roughly halfway between liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans — but so were liberal-moderate Republicans. (There aren’t enough liberal Republicans to break them out separately.)
This is critically important for Republicans generally, in addition to Trump specifically. In the 2016 election, almost a third of Trump’s support came from independents.
If independents continue to view Trump as poorly as do Democrats, that suggests he is unlikely to see similar support in four years’ time. What’s more, if Republicans continue to stand with Trump to plaudits from their base, it’s worth asking how independents will respond.
The picture Gallup’s numbers give, then, is not really one of a partisan split. It’s one of a Republican Party that views Trump differently than everyone else.
He looked at the Obama Independent numbers throughout his presidency and it remained the same all the way through.
In other words, Trump has lost those Independents who usually vote Republican. And that's a problem for Republicans.
